Information as Value Creator

By Tai, July 25, 2010 9:02 am

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App Store

And here come $126 Chinese iPed and $35 Indian iPad clone. This is not to mention the not-so-an-imitation Hewlett-Packard’s Slate.

The real value Apple is creating, however, is not only encapsulated in the hardware. What matters, and cannot be imitated by competitors, is the information exchange platform AppStore through which Apple has earned sweet royalties. Furthermore, while thousands of third-party companies and developers strive their best to be profitable building applications, Apple reaps the reward and share none of the failure.

Same does Facebook. And Wii.

This is the era where hardware has become commodities and information and services bring more value. And revenue.

What other platforms are you thinking of?


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FINS3640 S2-2010 Week 2 preparation

By Tai, July 22, 2010 7:58 pm

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FINS3640 Investment Management Modeling, Semester 2, 2010

Dear Students,

Session preparation

In week 2 (27/7/2010) we’re starting with the statistical package Stata. I’d advise you to revise the following knowledge:

  • Discrete return, holding period return calculation from stock price
  • Arithmetic and geometric return calculation
  • Stock indices, particularly the DJIA and S&P 500
  • Statistics
  • Calculation of mean, variance, standard deviation, covariance, correlation
  • Hypothesis testing
  • Normal distribution
  • Cumulative distribution
  • Histogram
  • Linear regression
  • p-value, t-statistics and their interpretation
  • R2 and adjusted R2
  • How to perform all of the above on paper and using spreadsheet, particularly Microsoft Excel 2007

Administrative

Please also click here to update the timetable and location of your session.

Tai


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The Australian Market for Corporate Control and how Firms create value

By Tai, July 18, 2010 11:42 pm

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The Australian Market for Corporate Control and how Firms create value

2010

Xuan Huang, Logan Robertson, Tai Tran, Huy Truong, Frank Wong

Abstract

Academic literature has devoted much effort to analyse merger and acquisition activities. Event studies are conducted to look at factors affecting shareholder returns in M&As. In particular, Moeller et al (2004) documented a size effect of US firms’ cumulative abnormal return around acquisition announcements. Using similar methodology on a sample of 1578 takeover deals from 2001 to 2007, this report attempts to i) assist Australian managers to select potential takeover target, ii) assist investors to make informed investment decision. We documented that Cumulative abnormal return (CAR) are on average positive at 4.15%, but average dollar CAR loss $11.66 million. However, once we take into account the skewness of Australian firm, the median for both CAR and dollar CAR are positive. OLS, multivariate and Probit regression methods were employed to confirm our analysis. Our result did not indicate a significant firm size effect in our dataset of Australian Acquirers. We also find highest abnormal return in stock-financed deals where targets are private. Additionally, we link the positive result of combined cumulative abnormal return to synergy motivation for doing acquisitions. Our findings should be of interest to financial managers in Australia who plan on merger engagements. Finally, our probit regression indicates that larger acquirer size is no more likely to make value reducing deals than those who are smaller.


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Foster’s Group Limited Analysis and Valuation

By Tai, July 15, 2010 12:10 am

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Foster’s Group Limited Analysis and Valuation

Investment Decision Making Support

June 2010

Phuong Ho, Thanh Luong, Hanh Pham, Khoi Tran, Tai Tran, Huy Truong

Foster's business analysis and valuation

Abstract

Valuation is the key activity for investment decisions. This document analyses Strategy, Accounting, and Financial conditions of Foster’s Group Limited within the context of the Australian Alcoholic Beverage Industry. The information is ultimately synthesized for Forecast and Valuation of the company. Time-series analysis is done for the 2007-2009 period with reference to the 2005-2006 period. Cross-sectional analysis puts Foster in contrast to its major competitor Lion Nathan. All information is from publicly available academic and reputable business sources.

On industry level, Foster is the largest player in a concentrated market. Foster can take advantage of the acquisition of Lion Nathan to move ahead in the competition. In terms of strategy, Foster is implementing various initiatives so as to maintain its position in Australasia and expand to the US and Asia. Accounting of the company is at high quality; however a concern of write-down is raised. On financial performance, Foster’s business is more fluctuating resulting from turbulence of its operations in the US market, compared to its opponent Lion Nathan. The volatility of earnings and growth may account for uncertainty of market perception toward the company and thus result in an undervaluation. Forecast of company sales growth ranges between 2.7% to 3.1% which is higher than industry value weighted average, and forecast of net operating profit margin is 18%. Valuation using three difference methods yields a fair price of AUD 5.85. We find the stock currently undervalued while the company has great prospects in long-term horizon, thus recommend Buy and Hold strategy. This recommendation receives analysts’ consensus.

To receive the document, please comment on this post with your real email (won’t be publicized).


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Efficiency and Morale

By Tai, June 17, 2010 3:41 pm

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I doubt the relationship is an exact parabola, but yeah, that’s the idea

morale efficiency


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