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By Tai, November 7, 2009 8:14 am

1. Google’s massive free cash flow

When time is right, a dividend would strongly boost GOOG’s stock price, strengthening their confident announcement that crisis was over.

Or a share repurchase might be useful a strategy, especially when they need more innovation.

2. Social Media is not a fad, but an evolution.

But, sub-trends exist. Where’s the opportunity?

“Social media begins to look less social” will be a good sign for ecosystem to grow. Twitter apps, Facebook apps & games for example.

“Corporations look to scale” and they will need tools. Beyond communication, think market research, CRM.

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By Tai, October 30, 2009 7:18 pm

I quickly noted here and here that Facebook was in its interim period.

That period lasted for half a year from March 2009 to October 2009.

This is the visualization of the shift in Facebook’s direction.

What was Facebook intention for moving toward content in the first place

• Experiments for innovation. Even Mark was surprised that web games was loved so well
• Competition with Twitter

Why the move back in October 2009 makes sense

Firstly, the most Facebook can be is a content aggregator and hosting, not a critical content creation platform. Holding the position on the content side is not sustainable.

Secondly, content on Facebook serves the purpose of building relationship. The key is still relationship. Abandoning relationship to be on the content extremity was not sustainable either.

The gap

The shift to maintain balance between relationship and content leaves creates a gap between Facebook itself and its clones. e.g. Zing Me

And a gap is an opportunity.

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By Tai,

@anhhung wrote a review on Mimo, the Twitter clone that supports SMS as I had envisioned.

I don’t intend to dig further on Mimo. Just this thought crossed my mind:

When an original product innovates, it creates a gap with its clones. This gap either forces to clone to chase the cloned, or allows the clone to innovate and differentiate itself.

If the second action is taken, an opportunity has been realized.

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By Tai, June 27, 2009 1:34 pm

1.With Facebook, blogs, forums, Twitter and such, you and I - normal people - can make our voice heard. Just 5 years ago, we could not have possibly done that when mainstream media still dominated (via @TanNg).

2. Michael Jackson-related traffic doubled Twitter’s update frequency, tripled Facebook’s

The event of Michael Jackson is not an excuse to assess whether Facebook or Twitter has won , but an opportunity to see how many more people Social Media as a whole have conquered, and how much change Social Media have created.

Outcoming Influence, not Incoming traffic.

And appropriate collaboration would enlarge the pie for all.

3. The event clears doubts of the power of Social Media (via baekdal)

4. Michael was a true Innovator (via @xoai). He invented the shoes for Anti-gravity lean

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By Tai, June 25, 2009 12:03 am

When more analysis brings more risks

It is frequently equated that more analysis reduces the risks in decision making. However, there exist cases that the more analysis is done, the more risks are produced.

1. When analysis slows down decision making

Excessive analysis can slow down decision making.

Early mover advantage is shattered and thus, more risks are introduced in the rivalry.
Excessive efforts for analyzing data and networking for relevant information increase costs and make the firm less competitive.
The longer it takes for analysis especially networking, the higher the probability of information leakage is.

2. When analysis increases sunk investment

Investment in R&D, analysis and innovation initiatives become sunk investment.

While these practices are increasingly seen in strategic perspective as opportunities drivers, they are still viewed as fixed costs in traditional accounting perspective.

Accounting risks are reflected in risk assessment of the firm nevertheless.

3. When analysis conflicts with intuition

Imagine you’re an ambitious entrepreneur and your intuition whispers so powerfully “go for it!” while analysis shouts “don’t!”.

Conflict in communication and conflict in roles (especially in startups) are inevitable.

4. The risk of structure and process

More mature enterprises have structures, processes, role definition and division of labor in place. The risk of this is people fulfiling their roles can lock themselves within their frames and aggressively defend their ideas.

Analysts might hinder certain innovative, risk-taking efforts. The risk of politicking decision making is also a concern.

Insights

In short, these examples prove that analysis and risk taking are not mutual exclusive. They are not on the two ends of a string, but intertwines at some points.

What to do

Roles

Know your roles and your workmates roles. Respect their standing and seek mutual understanding.

Some smaller firms don’t hire professional analysts, so one person can take multiple roles. In this case, techniques like the six thinking hats can be helpful.

Blended decision

In the blurry literature cases of uncertainty, an advice is often to balance different views. This does not recommend a ’straight’ balance of determinant factors. What should be aimed for is a wise mixture of practices in lights of the situations. At the end of the day, your logical mind and judgement are best.